Prediction Market Funds

For those that never get tired of winning. This fund tracks actions that President Trump takes whether it is passing policies, closing business deals, or winning awards.

The Claude Codes PMF is a focused bet on Anthropic’s dominance in technical AI. By aggregating markets on coding and mathematical reasoning leadership, this PMF captures the thesis that Claude becomes the go-to model for serious developers and researchers. A concentrated wager on clean abstractions, safer scaling, and the belief that the best AI for writing code will win the trust of those who ship it.

The Caracas Escalation PMF bundles the market’s most aggressive regime-change scenarios into one volatile geopolitical thesis. From oil ship seizures and military engagement timelines to Maduro’s exit odds and the collapse of diplomatic backchannels, this PMF prices a world where escalation beats negotiation. A concentrated wager on hard power, energy leverage, and the belief that history sometimes moves faster than official statements.

This fund invests in Democratic prospects to win majorities and battleground races in the 2026 midterms, and derivatives thereof.

The Google Wins AI PMF is your all-in bet on Mountain View’s dominance in the model wars. Tracking markets from month-by-month “best model” predictions to the race for 1500-token Chatbot Arena supremacy, this fund captures Google’s relentless push to reclaim the AI crown. A diversified play on research velocity, scaling battles, and the possibility that 2026 becomes the year of the nano-banana.

The Timothée Chalamet Era PMF lets ride the unstoppable wave of Chalamania. Blending award-season favorites—Oscar nominations, Golden Globes, Critics Choice wins—with a dash of celebrity-romance volatility, this fund captures Timmy’s cultural dominance. A diversified play on prestige cinema, pop-culture momentum, and the real possibility that Chalamet completely owns the year.

The Fed Rates Fall Faster PMF is a macro play for investors betting the Fed blinks sooner than Wall Street expects. With constituent markets pricing near-zero odds of future hikes, this fund captures the growing conviction that inflation cools, growth softens, and policy cuts arrive in a hurry. A diversified wager on the pivot narrative—before hindsight makes it obvious.

This fund invests in Republicans prospects to win majorities and battleground races in the 2026 midterms, and derivatives thereof.

The Authoritarian Cracks PMF is a longer-term bet that entrenched regimes are weaker than they look. It bundles leadership exit risk in Venezuela, Iran, and China, along with the possibility of full regime collapse in Iran. This fund assumes pressure compounds. Internal instability and external constraints don’t stay isolated forever. If cracks show in one place, they tend to spread.

The vibe has shifted and the Dems are no longer in disarray. This fund tracks the progress of liberals winning elections, passing policies, and winning the culture war.

AIRDROP ETF - a curated basket of Polymarket event tracking whether major crypto projects will launch their airdrops by specific deadlines

Things that I think will & will not happen in the football world